Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states

The paper analyses the evolution of the trade specialization pattern in the new EU member states. Relying on the empirical approach of the Markov transition matrices it analyses both the changes in the external shape of the distribution of comparative advantages and the intra‐distribution dynamics. The new members show a dynamic trade pattern: they gained comparative advantages relatively fast in sectors in which they were lagging behind at the beginning of the transition, notably in some ‘high tech’ products. In addition, many specialization improvements occurred in those items for which world demand expanded at the fastest rate over the nineties.     

EDI技术在物流配送中心的应用研究

本文对EDI技术在物流配送中心的应用进行了深入研究,设计了EDI在物流配送供应链系统中的应用框架,对我国物流配送企业的发展有一定的指导作用。     

物流配送实时监管系统设计

随着近年流通领域的发展,尤其是电子商务对现代物流的要求,物流配送需要现代化的信息技术已越来越成为人们的共识,如何对物流配送系统和配送中心进行现代化建设,已成为不少物流配送公司的重要课题。针对目前物流配送中“不可见部分”和过程无法控制的现状,论文设计了一个物流配送实时监管系统来满足物流配送企业和客户的需求。     

上市公司股利分配现状及对策研究

本文分析了我国上市公司股利分配的现状及存在的主要问题,并深入地剖析了这些问题产生的原因。在此基础上,从内部规范和外部规范两个方面提出改进我国上市公司股利分配的对策,以其对发展与完善我国资本市场提供帮助。     

基于Agent的物流配送决策支持系统研究

物流配送是一个涉及多种影响因素的综合性复杂问题。本文探讨了基于Agent(智能体技术)的物流配送决策支持系统设计，在该系统中的智能体模型中引入学习机制，初步建立了一个具有专家系统特点、可以不断进化的物流配送决策支持系统。     

ON THE FIRST–ORDER EFFICIENCY AND ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS OBTAINED FROM DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

Abstract. In this paper we study the first–order efficiency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from dependent observations. Our conditions are weaker than usual, in that we do not require convergences in probability to be uniform or third–order derivatives to exist.
The paper builds on Witting and Nolle's result concerning the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from independent and identically distributed observations, and on a martingale theorem by McLeish.     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.     

Inference with Dependent Data in Accounting and Finance Applications

We review developments in conducting inference for model parameters in the presence of intertemporal and cross‐sectional dependence with an emphasis on panel data applications. We review the use of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error estimators, which include the standard clustered and multiway clustered estimators, and discuss alternative sample‐splitting inference procedures, such as the Fama–Macbeth procedure, within this context. We outline pros and cons of the different procedures. We then illustrate the properties of the discussed procedures within a simulation experiment designed to mimic the type of firm‐level panel data that might be encountered in accounting and finance applications. Our conclusion, based on theoretical properties and simulation performance, is that sample‐splitting procedures with suitably chosen splits are the most likely to deliver robust inferential statements with approximately correct coverage properties in the types of large, heterogeneous panels many researchers are likely to face.     

农村普惠金融发展空间差异与集聚效应

基于中国农村普惠金融发展的空间地理特征,依据2006-2015年30个省市相关数据,测算农村普惠金融水平;建立空间自回归模型(SLM)和空间误差模型(SEM)检验普惠金融发展空间集聚效应.结果发现:各省市农村普惠金融指数总体呈上升趋势,农村普惠金融发展空间相关性逐年增强,局部空间差异逐渐缩小.普惠金融集聚与农民收入变化之间存在正空间相关性,普惠金融水平的提高能够促进农民收入水平的提高.鉴此,应加强区域空间金融合作,提高保险业普惠度;加强地方政府之间交流合作,发挥普惠金融集聚辐射作用,推动农民收入水平进一步提高.     

财政教育支出的农村减贫效应研究——基于网络空间结构的分析

运用修正的引力模型测算出我国财政教育支出的空间关联关系,以及财政教育支出对农村减贫的空间关联影响效应。实证结果表明：我国财政教育支出在空间关联上呈现出复杂、多线程的网络结构;区域间财政教育支出差异和人力资本差异与农村贫困联动矩阵呈现显著负相关,区域间技术发展水平差异和经济发展水平差异与农村贫困联动矩阵呈现显著正相关。加强我国农村贫困的治理,需要考虑财政教育支出的空间关联作用,实施定向的、梯度推进的区域协同策略。